Scenario Planning Approach to Adapting in the COVID Era.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused much uncertainty and disruption in healthcare resulting in many challenges for strategic planning. Scenario planning is a tool that allows healthcare leaders to plan healthcare delivery strategies by incorporating the uncertainties into the analysis and planning process. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Variables were identified which will have major impact on the future, but whose future direction is uncertain. The extremes of these drivers were used to generate multiple scenarios. A subset of scenarios was used to evaluate potential tactics to determine which may be high yield in the face of uncertainty. RESULTS: Unlike traditional strategic planning, scenario planning does not develop a single future with a path to that future. Scenario planning evaluates tactics to determine which would be helpful in specific scenarios, multiple different futures or under specific conditions. CONCLUSION: We present a scenario planning model which can be used to determine specific tactics to accommodate the uncertainty due to variable healthcare delivery needs in the COVID-19 era.

Evaluation of Telehealth Visit Attendance After Implementation of a Patient Navigator Program.

Importance: The dramatic rise in use of telehealth accelerated by COVID-19 created new telehealth-specific challenges as patients and clinicians adapted to technical aspects of video visits. Objective: To evaluate a telehealth patient navigator pilot program to assist patients in overcoming barriers to video visit access. Design, Setting, and Participants: This quality improvement study investigated visit attendance outcomes among those who received navigator outreach (intervention group) compared with those who did not (comparator group) at 2 US academic primary care clinics during a 12-week study period from April to July 2021. Eligible participants had a scheduled video visit without previous successful telehealth visits. Interventions: The navigator contacted patients with next-day scheduled video appointments by phone to offer technical assistance and answer questions on accessing the appointment. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was appointment attendance following the intervention. Return on investment (ROI) accounting for increased clinic adherence and costs of implementation was examined as a secondary outcome. Results: A total 4066 patients had video appointments scheduled (2553 [62.8%] women; median [IQR] age: intervention, 55 years [38-66 years] vs comparator, 52 years [36-66 years]; P = .02). Patients who received the navigator intervention had significantly increased odds of attending their appointments (odds ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6-2.6) when compared with the comparator group, with an absolute increase of 9% in appointment attendance for the navigator group (949 of 1035 patients [91.6%] vs 2511 of 3031 patients [82.8%]). The program's ROI was $11 387 over the 12-week period. Conclusions and Relevance: In this quality improvement study, we found that a telehealth navigator program was associated with significant improvement in video visit adherence with a net financial gain. Our findings have relevance for efforts to reduce barriers to telehealth-based health care and increase equity.

Trends in Filled Naloxone Prescriptions Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

This cohort study analyzes the trends in filled naloxone prescriptions during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and compare these to opioid prescriptions and overall prescriptions.

Six-Month Impairment in Cognition, Mental Health, and Physical Function Following COVID-19-Associated Respiratory Failure.

To determine the prevalence and extent of impairments impacting health-related quality of life among survivors of COVID-19 who required mechanical ventilation, 6 months after hospital discharge. DESIGN: Multicenter, prospective cohort study, enrolling adults 18 years old or older with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection who received mechanical ventilation for 48 hours or more and survived to hospital discharge. Eligible patients were contacted 6 months after discharge for telephone-based interviews from March 2020 to December 2020. Assessments included: Montreal Cognitive Assessment-Blind, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Impact of Event Scale-6, EuroQOL 5 domain quality-of-life questionnaire, and components of the Multidimensional Dyspnea Profile. SETTING: Two tertiary academic health systems. PATIENTS: Of 173 eligible survivors, a random sample of 63 were contacted and 60 consented and completed interviews. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Mean age was 57 + 13 years and mean duration of invasive mechanical ventilation was 14 + 8.2 days. Six months post-discharge, 48 patients (80%; 95% CI, 68-88%) met criteria for post-intensive care syndrome (PICS), with one or more domains impaired. Among patients with PICS, 28 (47%; 95% CI, 35-59%) were impaired in at least 2 domains, and 12 (20%; 95% CI, 12-32%) impaired in all three domains. Significant symptoms of post-traumatic stress were present in 20 patients (33%; 95% CI, 23-46%), anxiety in 23 (38%; 95% CI, 27-51%), and depression in 25 (42%; 95% CI, 30-54%). Thirty-three patients (55%; 95% CI, 42-67%) had impairments in physical activity; 25 patients (42%; 95% CI, 30-54%) demonstrated cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Eighty percent of COVID-19 survivors who required mechanical ventilation demonstrated PICS 6 months after hospital discharge. Patients were commonly impaired in multiple PICS domains as well as coexisting mental health domains.

Assessment of a Crisis Standards of Care Scoring System for Resource Prioritization and Estimated Excess Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Socially Vulnerable Area During a Regional Surge in COVID-19.

Importance: Crisis standards of care (CSOC) scores designed to allocate scarce resources during the COVID-19 pandemic could exacerbate racial disparities in health care. Objective: To analyze the association of a CSOC scoring system with resource prioritization and estimated excess mortality by race, ethnicity, and residence in a socially vulnerable area. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort analysis included adult patients in the intensive care unit during a regional COVID-19 surge from April 13 to May 22, 2020, at 6 hospitals in a health care network in greater Boston, Massachusetts. Participants were scored by acute severity of illness using the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and chronic severity of illness using comorbidity and life expectancy scores, and only participants with complete scores were included. The score was ordinal, with cutoff points suggested by the Massachusetts guidelines. Exposures: Race, ethnicity, Social Vulnerability Index. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was proportion of patients in the lowest priority score category stratified by self-reported race. Secondary outcomes were discrimination and calibration of the score overall and by race, ethnicity, and neighborhood Social Vulnerability Index. Projected excess deaths were modeled by race, using the priority scoring system and a random lottery. Results: Of 608 patients in the intensive care unit during the study period, 498 had complete data and were included in the analysis; this population had a median (IQR) age of 67 (56-75) years, 191 (38.4%) female participants, 79 (15.9%) Black participants, and 225 patients (45.7%) with COVID-19. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the priority score was 0.79 and was similar across racial groups. Black patients were more likely than others to be in the lowest priority group (12 [15.2%] vs 34 [8.1%]; P = .046). In an exploratory simulation model using the score for ventilator allocation, with only those in the highest priority group receiving ventilators, there were 43.9% excess deaths among Black patients (18 of 41 patients) and 28.6% (58 of 203 patients among all others (P = .05); when the highest and intermediate priority groups received ventilators, there were 4.9% (2 of 41 patients) excess deaths among Black patients and 3.0% (6 of 203) among all others (P = .53). A random lottery resulted in more excess deaths than the score. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, a CSOC priority score resulted in lower prioritization of Black patients to receive scarce resources. A model using a random lottery resulted in more estimated excess deaths overall without improving equity by race. CSOC policies must be evaluated for their potential association with racial disparities in health care.

Preventability of 30-Day Hospital Revisits Following Admission with COVID-19 at an Academic Medical Center.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have affected the preventability of 30-day hospital revisits, including readmissions and emergency department (ED) visits without admission. This study was conducted to examine the preventability of 30-day revisits for patients admitted with COVID-19 in order to inform the design of interventions that may decrease preventable revisits in the future. METHODS: The study team retrospectively reviewed a cohort of adults admitted to an academic medical center with COVID-19 between March 21 and June 29, 2020, and discharged alive. Patients with a 30-day revisit following hospital discharge were identified. Two-physician review was used to determine revisit preventability, identify factors contributing to preventable revisits, assess potential preventive interventions, and establish the influence of pandemic-related conditions on the revisit. RESULTS: Seventy-six of 576 COVID-19 hospitalizations resulted in a 30-day revisit (13.2%), including 21 ED visits without admission (3.6%) and 55 readmissions (9.5%). Of these 76 revisits, 20 (26.3%) were potentially preventable. The most frequently identified factors contributing to preventable revisits were related to the choice of postdischarge location and to patient/caregiver understanding of the discharge medication regimen, each occurring in 25.0% of cases. The most frequently cited potentially preventive intervention was "improved self-management plan at discharge," occurring in 65.0% of cases. Five of the 20 preventable revisits (25.0%) had contributing factors that were thought to be directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: Although only approximately one quarter of 30-day hospital revisits following admission with COVID-19 were potentially preventable, these results highlight opportunities for improvement to reduce revisits going forward.

Secondary Use of COVID-19 Symptom Incidence Among Hospital Employees as an Example of Syndromic Surveillance of Hospital Admissions Within 7 Days.

Importance: Alternative methods for hospital occupancy forecasting, essential information in hospital crisis planning, are necessary in a novel pandemic when traditional data sources such as disease testing are limited. Objective: To determine whether mandatory daily employee symptom attestation data can be used as syndromic surveillance to estimate COVID-19 hospitalizations in the communities where employees live. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted from April 2, 2020, to November 4, 2020, at a large academic hospital network of 10 hospitals accounting for a total of 2384 beds and 136 000 discharges in New England. The participants included 6841 employees who worked on-site at hospital 1 and lived in the 10 hospitals' service areas. Exposure: Daily employee self-reported symptoms were collected using an automated text messaging system from a single hospital. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean absolute error (MAE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7-day forecasts of daily COVID-19 hospital census at each hospital. Results: Among 6841 employees living within the 10 hospitals' service areas, 5120 (74.8%) were female individuals and 3884 (56.8%) were White individuals; the mean (SD) age was 40.8 (13.6) years, and the mean (SD) time of service was 8.8 (10.4) years. The study model had a MAE of 6.9 patients with COVID-19 and a weighted MAPE of 1.5% for hospitalizations for the entire hospital network. The individual hospitals had an MAE that ranged from 0.9 to 4.5 patients (weighted MAPE ranged from 2.1% to 16.1%). For context, the mean network all-cause occupancy was 1286 during this period, so an error of 6.9 is only 0.5% of the network mean occupancy. Operationally, this level of error was negligible to the incident command center. At hospital 1, a doubling of the number of employees reporting symptoms (which corresponded to 4 additional employees reporting symptoms at the mean for hospital 1) was associated with a 5% increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations at hospital 1 in 7 days (regression coefficient, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.02-0.07; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that a real-time employee health attestation tool used at a single hospital could be used to estimate subsequent hospitalizations in 7 days at hospitals throughout a larger hospital network in New England.

Telehealth Use by Age and Race at a Single Academic Medical Center During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many ambulatory clinics transitioned to telehealth, but it remains unknown how this may have exacerbated inequitable access to care. OBJECTIVE: Given the potential barriers faced by different populations, we investigated whether telehealth use is consistent and equitable across age, race, and gender. METHODS: Our retrospective cohort study of outpatient visits was conducted between March 2 and June 10, 2020, compared with the same time period in 2019, at a single academic health center in Boston, Massachusetts. Visits were divided into in-person visits and telehealth visits and then compared by racial designation, gender, and age. RESULTS: At our academic medical center, using a retrospective cohort analysis of ambulatory care delivered between March 2 and June 10, 2020, we found that over half (57.6%) of all visits were telehealth visits, and both Black and White patients accessed telehealth more than Asian patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that the rapid implementation of telehealth does not follow prior patterns of health care disparities.

Trends in telehealth and in-person transitional care management visits during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Transitional care management (TCM) visits delivered following hospitalization have been associated with reductions in mortality, readmissions, and total costs; however, uptake remains low. We sought to describe trends in TCM visit delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of ambulatory electronic health records from December 30, 2019 and January 3, 2021. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Forty four thousand six hundred and eighty-one patients receiving transitional care management services. MEASUREMENTS: Weekly rates of in-person and telehealth TCM visits before COVID-19 was declared a national emergency (December 30, 2019 to March 15, 2020), during the initial pandemic period (March 16, 2020 to April 12, 2020) and later period (April 12, 2020 to January 3, 2021). Characteristics of patients receiving in-person and telehealth TCM visits were compared. RESULTS: A total of 44,681 TCM visits occurred during the study period with the majority of patients receiving TCM visits age 65 years and older (68.0%) and female (55.0%) Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly all TCM visits were conducted in-person. In the initial pandemic, there was an immediate decline in overall TCM visits and a rise in telehealth TCM visits, accounting for 15.4% of TCM visits during this period. In the later pandemic, the average weekly number of TCM visits was 841 and 14.0% were telehealth. During the initial and later pandemic periods, 73.3% and 33.6% of COVID-19-related TCM visits were conducted by telehealth, respectively. Across periods, patterns of telehealth use for TCM visits were similar for younger and older adults. CONCLUSION: The study findings highlight a novel and sustained shift to providing TCM services via telehealth during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may reduce barriers to accessing a high-value service for older adults during a vulnerable transition period. Further investigations comparing outcomes of in-person and telehealth TCM visits are needed to inform innovation in ambulatory post-discharge care.

Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission.

The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states reopen businesses is unknown. In this paper, we used anonymized cell-phone data to quantify the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in business establishments by building a Business Risk Index that measures transmission risk over time. The index was built using two metrics, visits per square foot and the average duration of visits, to account for both density of visits and length of time visitors linger in the business. We analyzed trends in traffic patterns to 1,272,260 businesses across eight states from January 2020 to June 2020. We found that potentially risky traffic behaviors at businesses decreased by 30% by April. Since the end of April, the risk index has been increasing as states reopen. There are some notable differences in trends across states and industries. Finally, we showed that the time series of the average Business Risk Index is useful for forecasting future COVID-19 cases at the county-level (P < 0.001). We found that an increase in a county's average Business Risk Index is associated with an increase in positive COVID-19 cases in 1 week (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: (1.1-1.26)). Our risk index provides a way for policymakers and hospital decision-makers to monitor the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission from businesses based on the frequency and density of visits to businesses. This can serve as an important metric as states monitor and evaluate their reopening strategies.